Development and the Next Generation: Berlin Workshop Series by Gudrun Kochendörfer-Lucius, Boris Pleskovic

By Gudrun Kochendörfer-Lucius, Boris Pleskovic

The Berlin Workshop sequence 2007 provides chosen papers from conferences held September 6??8, 2004, on the seventh Annual discussion board co-hosted via InWEnt and the realm financial institution in training for the Bank's global improvement document. This quantity offers papers from the periods on fairness and improvement, overlaying concerns in terms of the function of governments within the merchandising of fairness, equity-enhancing social adjustments, development effective welfare states, lowering worldwide inequalities, and integration and inequality within the new Europe.

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With death rates falling, birth rates typically remain high for some period of time, generating population growth. Eventually birth rates decline, slowing the rate of population growth. The transition ends when birth rates and death rates both stabilize at a new low level, implying a return to low (or zero) population growth. The pace at which mortality and fertility decline and the length of time between mortality decline and fertility decline determine the rate of population growth that will be observed during the demographic transition.

As a result, competition for resources within families declined significantly—a potentially important factor affecting their health and schooling. At the same time, most of these young people were born at a time when cohort size was increasing, implying increased competition for resources at the macro level. The pattern observed in Brazil is similar to that in most developing countries. Many of today’s young people grew up in a period in which 34 | D AV I D L A M FIGURE 5. Average Number of Siblings of Brazilian Youth Ages 12–14, Brazil Censuses 1960–2000 Number of siblings 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1960 1970 1980 Siblings ever born 1990 2000 Siblings surviving Source: United Nations Population Division (2005).

For this reason, it was recently possible to go beyond scenario analysis and move to fully probabilistic population projections. Probabilistic, or stochastic, projections are an important methodological advance compared with the traditional “variants” approach used by forecasting agencies around the world for some decades, following the example of the United Nations Population Division. This traditional approach produces high and low variants in addition to the medium variant. The high-low range is supposed to indicate a “plausible range” of future population trends but can be defined only in terms of one of the three components of change.

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